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AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today

Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?

In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex!
A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.

Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate


Source: Bloomberg
China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.

Chinese imports from Australia


Source: Bloomberg
Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally?
The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/audusd-forecast-aussie-wants-to-keep-the-party-going/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Options for retirement saving for 51yo male non tax resident

OK gurus, looking for some opinions.
So I am 51, no valuable assets and divorced. My divorce ruined me and I am on track to break the $0 nett worth in Oct/Nov when I finish paying off my loans (excluding super and tax). I am an Aust non tax resident.
My Super is around $60K and my tax bill $35K which is paid the year after assessment at around $2.5K per month. I pay all expenses for my children who are living in Aus and have just finished paying maintenance to the ex. With current income and costs I will be saving a few thousand dollars every month which used to go to the ex and I need to invest for my retirement.
Option 1 (currently my preference)
Use the 10K + 10K Super to pay off my loans slightly early, then put those payments and extra savings towards a deposit on Uni accommodation as I am paying rent in Aust for my children. Move one child into the house and have their friends rent the other room(s) - child 2 continues to live at Uni for one more year. (Kids grew up in another country so Uni accommodation to help them get resettled back in Aus but price is exorbitant). This replaces current rent payments with morgage payments and gives me an asset.
This is based on expected property market falling around end if this year and the exchange rate also falling - both of which I think are good bets. I think the long term student accommodation will recover or raise slightly over time and the forex should work to my advantage if I borrow in local currency.
Option 2:
There are insurance products that if I stay a non tax resident for 10 more years anything I put into the product is tax free if I return to Australia.
Downside is I must commit to 10 years of a fixed amount per month and absorb any forex risk if I have to leave the country. If I stay in this country earning local $ this risk is abated somewhat but that is often at the will of the Government.
Option 3:
load what I can into an ETF
I think the markets will tank in the short term so would rather hold cash until early next year - I may miss a rally but I really cant see the economy picking up before then.
Option 4:
Selected stocks.
I work for a financial institution so I need to keep any stocks long term and need clearance for any trade. This makes this option difficult but possible if I dont do option 1.
submitted by AndrewTheAverage to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

$1200 USD Trading Machine

Mainly needing help with the main build, accessories are taken care of. Want a fast PC that can handle trading 24/7.
[1200USD]My budget
Date I will buy:ASAP
[]before [X]after tax - rate: 6.25
[]OK with rebates - I know I will pay more upfront
Country:USA
Not US/CAN/EU/AUS? Provide websites to shop:
[X]Microcente[]Frys store access
USAGE
List programs and indicate distribution with percentages: xx%
[]Gaming:
[]Gameplay streaming to Twitch, YouTube
[]Photo/Video editing:
[]Music/Audio production:
[]CAD, CFD/FEA, Engineering Simulations:
[]Server:
[X]NAS/Web surfing:100% I will only be using this PC for general use web browsing and Forex trading. Computer will be running 24/7 and primarily running meta trader 4 and on tradingview.com
Percent time spent in each role:
SCREENS Select ONE [X]1080p60Hz []1080p144Hz []1440p60Hz []1440p144Hz []5760x1080-Triple Wide []4K 60Hz [X]I own []don't own this
I plan on having 4 screens total so need support for that.
OVERCLOCKING
[]I am willing to overclock my CPU
Can be very helpful for high refresh rate monitors (144Hz)
Many workstation programs benefit from it
ENVIRONMENT
[]Hot []Dusty/Pets [x]On 24/7 []Low noise [X]Normal
PERIPHERALS
I have: Dell D3218HN
[]Mouse:
[]Keyboard:
[]Headphones/speakers:
I need:
[]Mouse: []flawless sensor, grip: []palm []fingertip []claw []Keyboard: []mechanical []quiet []tenkeyless []backlighting []Headphones/speakers: []over ear []on ear []in ear []Isolation required
OPERATING SYSTEM
I need Windows[], version:
[]I have access to DreamSpark or a similar for cheapefree OS
INTERNET
[]I can connect to this computer with [] a cable or [] a Powerline adapter
[x]I need wireless
CURRENT PARTS
Please list any parts you own we could use, exact part numbers (especially for PSU's) or pcpartpicker.com links are most appreciated:
Dell D3218HN
submitted by IndependentNeck to CabaloftheBuildsmiths [link] [comments]

Discussion, Questions, Solutions, Inputs - AusFinance 2018

Hello everyone,
Hope you have had a good week.
It has been a while (read: ages!) since we had a discussion as a community.
In the past when the members were still below 5,000 this kind of post were always pleasant, includes healthy debates + quality banter, great inputs for the direction of the sub and so on... I hope we can keep this culture alive.
Move forward about 2 years in (a little less than a year ago) we only had 10,000 subscribers and the climate was still calm and warm. Now we have over 25,000 subscribers with 1million+ pageviews in the past month alone (1,088,590 to be exact).
From where I am sitting. The mods are exhausted. The days where we get to sit around and just read the sub's contents casually whilst watching tv and warn rude members is slipping away!. Seems that mods have to put the beers away now and deal with it. There are now:
And so on...
As a result, Members are temporarily and some permanently banned, posts removed without warning, guidance seeked from moderators can be replied without a firm policy and enforcement. It's those nasty stuff.
With the exception of an advice being given to a person and the requirement to have relevance to Australian finance and economy, there has been never been any other iron-clad rule implemented in the sub.
AusFinance has always been supported by its members' quality participation rather than iron-clad policy. And I'd like to keep it that way. Though the recent boom in our pageviews and participants does decreases your influence as a single member to have an impact to the larger community by quality posts and the voting system.
These issues were expected as the sub grows, though I don't think anyone would forecast the boom we have had in the past couple of months. And I think we are at the start of going in the direction where I can no longer visit it with enjoyment. So let's not wait until it's too late!
The below is what I have in mind (not a collective thought of all moderators) on where we might go:
Property is only a single topic out of all possible discussions to be had in the sub. There are micro and macro economy, portfolio management, derivatives, currency exchange, regulatory environment, loans, personal finance, and many more!!!
u/jackimatic initiated the property mega-thread to have some relief on the number of property posts which has exploded recently. This is not sustainable as we single-out a topic to be permanently stickied in this sub.
I've always wanted the sub to have balanced content. Thus, regardless of the fact that Australians are so obsessed with this asset class -- I don't see it happening in this place.
One option is to refer poster to AusProperty and lock the post. This does not mean we ban all posts about property; but to limit property discussion within a broader context, for example: buy vs rent, interest rate impact, portfolio management and economy as a whole. What's out the door?: speculation about property prices, property construction, micro movement in property (i.e. auction results and "look! NSW property price went down by 0.5% last week!) and the likes gets the boot.
There will be no fast and hard rule about it and there will be some human judgement involved. Basically, if you get your posts locked and referred to AusProperty then don't complain.
Some posts about personal finance around here also reflects the person's specific circumstances. Let me reiterate that we cannot provide advice, and when you make such posts -- it is difficult not to do so. What is supported here are the likes of budgeting techniques, academic studies (i.e. we can discuss those of what people study in Financial Planning), or scrutinisation of certain approach as discussed through certain books (most popular being mentioned around here are the barefoot investor. But you know, there are other dozens of quality books with approaches that are proven just the same!).
There is fiaustralia to discuss early retirement (if that is your thing). They're a good sub which specialises in this type, a good addition to AusFinance.
As said above, there are some posts sourced from the media which I sometimes wonder if it is just a personal rant expressed through a news article or just to gain karma.
Thus, all linked articles must be accompanied by OP's insight into the article and how it is relevant and possibly utilised. Failing to do so grants the mod full discretion to remove the post.
Another solution to this, is to only allow text posts within the sub. Though personally, I like the varieties of pictures at the front page :P
The bigger the sub = the higher the requirement for rules and its enforcement = the drier it can get.
I much rather see a small sub with quality posts and discussion rather than a big sub with rants and politics all around. AusFinance will be open to all discussion, though when the need arises a new specialised sub will be promoted.
If this is to be enforced, there are still questions over what the maximum subscriber will be and to keep certain personalities within. In the past, I pulled a number out of my ass and got 25,000. Never I expected that in one year alone we are already over that number at this time.
I've never had the time to get into all the detail of what it can do. I'd still prefer judicious approach by using human judgement, though some classification on posts won't hurt.
If possible, I am thinking to have categories as a requirement for every post. just like askscience
Minimum 1 category, maximum 3 categories (as some subjects may overlap).
If possible, for all categories there will be a wikipage. Then, for all posts to be automatically submitted/posted into the wiki. Categories will be: property, lifestyle, debt/mortgage, news/media, general discussion, AMA, shitpost, career, derivates, tools, books discussions, tax, negative gearing, investing, forex/currency, insurance.
This way, we'll have higher visibilty of what the topics are + Wiki will also be constantly updated.
If there are any expert out there, let me know if the above is possible :P
Let the discussion begin. Questions, solutions and inputs only please. Rants will be removed.
Post will be stickied only for ONE WEEK (okay, maybe two if it has some lengthy quality discussion).
New moderator may be required to help in managing the sub.
submitted by fauziozi to AusFinance [link] [comments]

How much better are exchange rates in Japan?

Most people here that I've seen post recommend waiting until you're in the country at an airport to exchange, but I find it hard to believe that a "last second" exchange at an airport would yield better value than doing it in the US.
I looked up various bank's exchange rates and as of 4/4/19 I believe these to be accurate:
Bank of America: ¥105.82
Wells Fargo: ¥105.57
Citibank: ¥113.11
I have a Wells Fargo debit card that I can use to exchange in Japan and the fees are 3% plus whatever fees are imposed at the ATM, so would it still be more efficient than ordering the Yen in the US? I'm going to be landing at the Haneda airport, and I haven't been able to find hard numbers for their rates online.
Thank you!
submitted by IGiveHoots to JapanTravel [link] [comments]

Fees for thought (x-post from /r/Neotrader)

Hi guys,
Long time lurker and just wanted to bring more awareness to the impact that fees have on the purchase price and potential gains/losses. This is particularly relevant to us Aussies with the impact of foreign exchange, may apply to other non-US countries as well. I’ll go through a comparison to illustrate some of the impacts (YMMV). Data from currency, exchanges and price obtained roughly at the same time.  
  A comparison between three scenarios is as follows:   1. Directly purchasing NEO on Coinspot 2. Purchase Bitcoins with $1,000 AUD on Coinspot, transfer to Binance, purchase NEO on Binance. 3. Purchase Bitcoins with $750 USD on Bittrex, transfer to Binance, purchase on Binance.  
Scenario 1: Using Coinspot - Start with $1,000 AUD   - NEO price in AUD (Coinspot): $62 - Formula of 3% purchasing fee: [ ( $1,000 / $62 ) – ( $1,000 / $62 x 1.03) ] x $62 = $29.13 - Actual NEO price in AUD: $63.86 - Approx NEO units: $1,000 / $63.86 = 15.659255 - NEO withdrawal fee: 0.10 - Net cost AUD: $35.52   Scenario 2: Purchase Bitcoins with $1,000 AUD, transfer to Binance, purchase NEO on Binance.   - Bitcoin price in AUD (Coinspot): $5,957 - Formula of 2% purchasing fee: [ ( $1,000 / $5,957) – ( $1,000 / $5,957 x 1.02) ] x $5,957 = $19.61 - Actual price purchased: $6,076 - Approx BTC units: $1,000 / $6,076 = 0.16457817 - BTC withdrawal fee (Coinspot): 0.0005 - Remaining BTC units: 0.16407817 - NEO price in BTC (Binance): 0.010382 - Transaction fee: Nil at the moment - Approx NEO units: 15.804100 - Actual NEO price in AUD: $63.27 - NEO withdrawal fee: Nil at the moment - Net cost AUD: $22.65   Scenario 3: Purchase Bitcoins with $750 USD ($1,000 AUD) on Bittrex, purchase NEO on Binance.   - AUD / USD Exchange rate (AusPost): 0.75 - Bitcoin price in USD: $4,378 - Purchasing fee (not confirmed): 0.25% or $2.50 - Approx BTC units: 0.17074006 - BTC Bittrex withdrawal fee (Reddit): 0.001 - Remaining BTC units: 0.16974006 - NEO price in BTC (Binance): 0.010382 - Transaction fee: Nil at the moment - Approx NEO units: 16.349457 - Actual NEO price in AUD: $61.16 - NEO withdrawal fee: Nil at the moment - Net cost AUD: $14.59   Summary points:   - Comparing scenario 1 and 3 - if you were in scenario 1 and wanted to purchase the equivalent amount of units in scenario 3, you would need the price to rise from $63.86 to $66.67 (about 4.4%).   - You can also purchase NEO on Bittrex which may be cheaper than Binance depending on the buy/sell spread, withdrawal and transaction costs and then you may transfer it to a wallet.   - Why Binance? At the time of this post, there are no transaction/withdrawal costs and holding NEO on the exchange also generates GAS as well as having a BTC / GAS market.   - Scenario 1: There are some implicit costs not mentioned – Forex rate (0.73 vs 0.75, about 2%), purchase price (buy/sell spread $5,957 vs $5,837 about 2%), opportunity cost of comparing against scenario 3 (4.4%).   - Scenario 2: Basically less costs than option 1 but skips obtaining USD.   - Scenario 3: This has preliminary steps to obtain a USD bank account in your location and FOREX costs which may increase the net fee.   - This is not a recommendation of which exchanges to use, but an exercise to show the differences of the effects of fees/costs and to manage your costs if trading which can accumulate quite rapidly.  
Feel free to comment if you have any questions or comments. If this has helped you out by giving you ideas about different ways of purchasing NEO or saved you money, please consider tipping GAS: AWQsn9Jn67b2pcBPpqogMniy6cUHvgZHtr
submitted by Gnoshi1 to NEO [link] [comments]

Fees for thought

Hi guys,
Long time lurker and just wanted to bring more awareness to the impact that fees have on the purchase price and potential gains/losses. This is particularly relevant to us Aussies with the impact of foreign exchange, may apply to other non-US countries as well. I’ll go through a comparison to illustrate some of the impacts (YMMV). Data from currency, exchanges and price obtained roughly at the same time.   Do you guys think it would be worthwhile x-posting this to /neo?
  A comparison between three scenarios is as follows:   1. Directly purchasing NEO on Coinspot 2. Purchase Bitcoins with $1,000 AUD on Coinspot, transfer to Binance, purchase NEO on Binance. 3. Purchase Bitcoins with $750 USD on Bittrex, transfer to Binance, purchase on Binance.  
Scenario 1: Using Coinspot - Start with $1,000 AUD   - NEO price in AUD (Coinspot): $62 - Formula of 3% purchasing fee: [ ( $1,000 / $62 ) – ( $1,000 / $62 x 1.03) ] x $62 = $29.13 - Actual NEO price in AUD: $63.86 - Approx NEO units: $1,000 / $63.86 = 15.659255 - NEO withdrawal fee: 0.10 - Net cost AUD: $35.52   Scenario 2: Purchase Bitcoins with $1,000 AUD, transfer to Binance, purchase NEO on Binance.   - Bitcoin price in AUD (Coinspot): $5,957 - Formula of 2% purchasing fee: [ ( $1,000 / $5,957) – ( $1,000 / $5,957 x 1.02) ] x $5,957 = $19.61 - Actual price purchased: $6,076 - Approx BTC units: $1,000 / $6,076 = 0.16457817 - BTC withdrawal fee (Coinspot): 0.0005 - Remaining BTC units: 0.16407817 - NEO price in BTC (Binance): 0.010382 - Transaction fee: Nil at the moment - Approx NEO units: 15.804100 - Actual NEO price in AUD: $63.27 - NEO withdrawal fee: Nil at the moment - Net cost AUD: $22.65   Scenario 3: Purchase Bitcoins with $750 USD ($1,000 AUD) on Bittrex, purchase NEO on Binance.   - AUD / USD Exchange rate (AusPost): 0.75 - Bitcoin price in USD: $4,378 - Purchasing fee (not confirmed): 0.25% or $2.50 - Approx BTC units: 0.17074006 - BTC Bittrex withdrawal fee (Reddit): 0.001 - Remaining BTC units: 0.16974006 - NEO price in BTC (Binance): 0.010382 - Transaction fee: Nil at the moment - Approx NEO units: 16.349457 - Actual NEO price in AUD: $61.16 - NEO withdrawal fee: Nil at the moment - Net cost AUD: $14.59   Summary points:   - Comparing scenario 1 and 3 - if you were in scenario 1 and wanted to purchase the equivalent amount of units in scenario 3, you would need the price to rise from $63.86 to $66.67 (about 4.4%).   - You can also purchase NEO on Bittrex which may be cheaper than Binance depending on the buy/sell spread, withdrawal and transaction costs and then you may transfer it to a wallet.   - Why Binance? At the time of this post, there are no transaction/withdrawal costs and holding NEO on the exchange also generates GAS as well as having a BTC / GAS market.   - Scenario 1: There are some implicit costs not mentioned – Forex rate (0.73 vs 0.75, about 2%), purchase price (buy/sell spread $5,957 vs $5,837 about 2%), opportunity cost of comparing against scenario 3 (4.4%).   - Scenario 2: Basically less costs than option 1 but skips obtaining USD.   - Scenario 3: This has preliminary steps to obtain a USD bank account in your location and FOREX costs which may increase the net fee.   - This is not a recommendation of which exchanges to use, but an exercise to show the differences of the effects of fees/costs and to manage your costs if trading which can accumulate quite rapidly.  
Feel free to comment if you have any questions or comments. If this has helped you out by giving you ideas about different ways of purchasing NEO or saved you money, please consider tipping GAS: AWQsn9Jn67b2pcBPpqogMniy6cUHvgZHtr
submitted by Gnoshi1 to Neotrader [link] [comments]

So my Brother-In-Law gave up his job as a Vice President of a multinational bank to make this browser-based Foreign-exchange market game - You can win real money with no monetary investment.

Its a good game. Or if Forex is your thing, its a neat way to test your instincts against the market without affecting your real-money holdings.
If you are good at pattern-recognition, you can win money from the game without any knowledge of the forces at work behind the exchange rates.
Anyway: try it. Its free - it is inarguably the best fun you can have with the Aus Dollar / US Dollar currency conversion rate with your clothes on ;)
https://nous.net/join?by=wcHH8B
submitted by TheMotorcycleBoy to Forex [link] [comments]

Complex tax question: CGT consequences of buying and selling overseas shares using overseas currency

Might need to bust out your master tax guide for this one...
I signed up to an overseas trading account to buy NASDAQ-listed shares. I put $5000 AUD in the account, getting me $3500 USD.
Months later, I bought the NASDAQ shares for $3400 USD, leaving $100USD in the trading account. According to my 2013 copy of Australian Tax Law, this constitutes a Forex Realisation Event 1: I disposed of foreign currency. So I have to calculate the gain/loss on:
$3400 USD converted to AUD at the daily rate when I bought the shares (aka disposed of the currency), less
$3400 USD converted to AUD at the daily rate when I bought the currency.
Next, I now have $3400 USD worth of shares, which I later sell for $3700USD. This would also be a CGT event, right? So I have to calculate the AUD value of the shares at the date I bought them (cost base) and sold them (proceeds). Even though I don't get my hands on the money, because the cash is still in USD in the trading account.
Finally, I now have $3700 USD from the sale plus the leftover $100 USD from when I bought the shares, totalling $3800 USD, sitting in the account. When I convert this back to my Australian bank account, I have again disposed of foreign currency, and so have to calculate the gain/loss on:
$3800 USD in AUD when I convert it to AUD (easy enough), less
$3800 USD in AUD... split into $3700 in AUD when I received the share sale proceeds, and $100 in AUD when I originally put money into the account. Is that appropriate?
I hope the steps make sense. In summary, there is a CGT event when you use USD to buy US shares; when you sell the US shares (even though you don't receive Australian money); and when you convert the US proceeds back to actual Australian dollars.
In my situation there is enough of a time lag between each of these events to make them distinct CGT events, I'm thinking.
I'm looking at 22-400 in my old CCH Aus Tax Law guide for the first event, but can't find any additional guidance after that.
submitted by marty_0001 to AusFinance [link] [comments]

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AUD interest rates!! #Tim forex education.

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